'Calendar year 2023 is going to be big as pessimism takes a back seat.'
In the global context, the country "stands out" in terms of relatively stronger growth and improved economic fundamentals, Raghuram Rajan said.
ACC president Jay Shah attributed the body's decision to host Asia Cup matches in Sri Lanka on teams' reluctance to play ODIs in the UAE heat.
The rupee fell 13 paise to end at 61.21 against the American currency in Wednesday's trade following fresh dollar demand from importers, amid uptick in retail inflation and slowing industrial production growth.
China on Tuesday angrily denounced the nuclear-powered submarine deal announced by the US, UK and Australia, saying the pact violates the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the three countries are travelling "further down the dangerous and wrong path."
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
'The United States should not, by this logic, expect India to create military distractions along the Line of Actual Control, hold up Chinese shipping in the Indian Ocean, or even openly provide intelligence or basing for US forces transiting the region.'
Overseas investors have pulled out a net Rs 1,14,855.97 crore from the Indian markets in the current year so far, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth Rs 48,261.65 crore so far this month, taking the year-to-date tally this year to a massive Rs 114,855.97 crore, according to depositories data. The exodus of foreign investors was largely owing to inflationary pressures and deepening global macroeconomic conditions following the Russia-Ukraine war, experts said.
Asia's richest man Gautam Adani, besides looking at opportunities to expand his vast empire, is hooked on ChatGPT - the programme that trawls vast amount of information to generate natural-sounding text on virtually anything - from crafting jokes to writing ad copy, debugging computer code, to even generating poems and essays. Adani, whose conglomerate has in recent years diversified from mines, ports and power plants into airports, data centres and defence, penned musing from his visit to Davos to attend the World Economic Forum meeting. "From a meetings perspective, this was perhaps my busiest WEF as I met over a dozen heads of states and several business leaders," he wrote on LinkedIn, talking of new geopolitical couplings, climate change and tight-lipped evangelists and AI.
Equity benchmark indices fell sharply on Tuesday, with the Sensex tumbling nearly 844 points, in line with weak global market trends and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE benchmark slumped 843.79 points or 1.46 per cent to settle at 57,147.32. During the day, it tanked 940.71 points or 1.62 per cent to 57,050.40.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
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Steps announced by new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan could attract $10 billion of forex inflows in the next three months and this could be a material near-term positive for the rupee, which has lost 20 per cent since January, the London-based banking and financial services company said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The economy is likely to log in a tepid 6 per cent growth next fiscal, in line with the consensus estimates, rating agency Crisil said on Thursday. The agency also sees the economy averaging a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the next five fiscals. Crisil further said it expects the corporate revenue to log in double-digit rise again next fiscal.
Modi also invoked Mahatma Gandhi and Buddha to urge the delegates to draw inspiration from India's civilisational ethos and "focus not on what divides us, but on what unites us."
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said its board has approved a dividend payment of Rs 30,307 crore to the government for the financial ended March 2022. The board approved the transfer of Rs 30,307 crore as surplus to the central government for the accounting year 2021-22 while deciding to maintain the Contingency Risk Buffer at 5.50 per cent, RBI said in a statement. The decision on the dividend payment was made in the 596th meeting of the Central Board of Directors of RBI, headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das, held on Friday.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
Historically, tensions in West Asian regions have provided support to gold prices.
Sanjay Mookim, India equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, tells Puneet Wadhwa that this is not a time for investors to dabble in relatively small and illiquid stocks.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
'We will see a lot of investments from the private sector.' 'As long as we are not impacted by some global events, I think we will be in a strong place.'
The country's GDP grew at the fastest pace in seven quarters at 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, retaining the fastest growing major economy tag on robust performance by manufacturing and service sectors as well as good farm output.
'The Indian economy is in slowdown and growth may stay slow,' notes Devangshu Datta.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday described cryptocurrencies as "clear danger" and said that anything that derives value based on make believe, without any underlying, is just speculation under a sophisticated name. The government is in the process of finalising a consultation paper on cryptocurrencies after gathering inputs from various stakeholders and institutions. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been flagging concerns about cryptocurrencies, which are seen as a highly speculative asset.
'As our per capita income increases and various demographic segments emerge, the need for various kinds of protection and risk covers will become even more explicit.'
Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters alongside debt-related inflows largely supported the rupee
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday expressed hope that G20 will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy and work towards bringing back stability, confidence and growth on the global landscape.
'We must understand that the LAC is a political issue for China, so any action on the LAC will keep India focussed on the LAC which gives China the opportunity for any adventurism in the Indian Ocean.'
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
